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Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 9.5 (-110/-110).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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At a -4.5-point disadvantage, the Colts are underdogs in this week's contest, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal approach.The model projects this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, based on the approaches of each team and game dynamics.The Denver Broncos defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, tempting opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 3rd-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.Jonathan Taylor has been more involved as a potential pass-catcher this season (65.9% Route Participation Rate in games he has been on the field) than he did last season (47.1%).When it comes to pocket protection (and the strong impact it has on all passing attack metrics), the offensive line of the Indianapolis Colts ranks as the 5th-best in the league this year.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Colts to pass on 48.9% of their plays: the 3rd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.The 2nd-lowest number of plays in the league have been called by the Colts this year (a mere 53.6 per game on average).The weather forecast calls for 1-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower rush volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.Jonathan Taylor has compiled a puny -3.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 10th percentile when it comes to running backs.Jonathan Taylor's possession skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 77.7% to 61.6%.
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