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Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-120/-110).
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
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This game's line suggests a passing game script for the Colts, who are -3.5-point underdogs.The model projects this game to have the most plays run out of all the games this week at 133.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.The Colts have run the 5th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.3 plays per game.With a high 57.8% Route Participation Rate (97th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonathan Taylor rates as one of the pass-catching running backs with the biggest workloads in the NFL.The projections expect Jonathan Taylor to earn 3.4 targets in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 82nd percentile among running backs.
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FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
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With a 58.3% rate of throwing the ball (adjusted for context) this year, the 5th-least pass-heavy offense in the league has been the Colts.Opposing teams teams have been wary to test the pass defense of the Cleveland Browns, averaging the fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 28.0 per game) this year.As it relates to air yards, Jonathan Taylor ranks in the lowly 1st percentile among RBs since the start of last season, accruing just -6.0 per game.This year, the tough Cleveland Browns defense has yielded a mere 26.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing RBs: the 9th-best in the NFL.This year, the daunting Browns pass defense has surrendered the least yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing running backs: a mere 3.7 YAC.
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