Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 7.5 (-115/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 9.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 7.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

A passing game script is implied by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to call the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a massive 61.0 per game on average).
The Jaguars defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 10th-most passes in the NFL (37.0 per game) this year.
Jonathan Taylor has run a route on 61.0% of his offense's dropbacks since the start of last season, ranking him in the 98th percentile among RBs.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive approach to lean 1.7% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Colts to pass on 56.1% of their opportunities: the 8th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
Jonathan Taylor has put up a mere -6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: just 2nd percentile among RBs.
With a poor 4.4 adjusted yards per target (20th percentile) since the start of last season, Jonathan Taylor has been as one of the bottom RBs in the pass game in the NFL.
The Jaguars pass defense has displayed good efficiency vs. RBs this year, giving up 4.56 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the league.

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