Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Indianapolis Colts vs Tennessee Titans · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 7:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to see 129.4 offensive plays run: the 5th-highest number among all games this week.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 8th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a monstrous 62.0 plays per game.
The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (meaning zero wind) inside this dome, while run volume may fall-off.
With a remarkable 64.8% Route Participation Rate (98th percentile) last year, Jonathan Taylor places among the RB receiving threats with the highest volume in football.
The Indianapolis Colts O-line profiles as the 8th-best in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a positive impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Colts will have a new play-caller this year in head coach Shane Steichen, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to lean 3.0% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 56.4% pass rate.
When it comes to air yards, Jonathan Taylor grades out in just the 2nd percentile among RBs last year, accruing just -6.0 per game.
Jonathan Taylor has been among the least effective receivers in the league among RBs, averaging a measly 4.12 adjusted yards-per-target last year while grading out in the 11th percentile.
Since the start of last season, the formidable Titans pass defense has allowed the 7th-least yards-after-the-catch in football to opposing RBs: a puny 6.2 YAC.