Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Receiving Yards

Minnesota Vikings vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 18, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-135/+105).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Colts are a giant 11.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 9th-most pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 62.1% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 2nd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 136.3 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have called the 7th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 60.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

Jonathan Taylor has totaled a measly -6.0 air yards per game this year: a lowly 4th percentile among RBs.
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
Jonathan Taylor's receiving efficiency has declined this year, notching just 3.84 yards-per-target vs a 6.10 mark last year.
Jonathan Taylor's ability to pick up extra yardage has diminished this season, totaling just 7.59 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) compared to a 9.60 mark last season.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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