Jonathan Taylor Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Carries

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (-112/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 11.5 @ -102 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Indianapolis Colts offensive approach to lean 1.7% more towards the rushing attack than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Shane Steichen now calling the plays.
The model projects the Indianapolis Colts to be the 8th-most run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 43.9% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Our trusted projections expect the Indianapolis Colts to call the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.3 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
The 10th-most plays in the NFL have been called by the Colts this year (a massive 61.0 per game on average).
The predictive model expects Jonathan Taylor to total 13.7 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 82nd percentile when it comes to running backs.

Favors Under

A passing game script is implied by the Colts being a -3.5-point underdog in this week's game.
Our trusted projections expect Jonathan Taylor to be a much smaller piece of his team's run game in this contest (44.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (62.4% in games he has played).

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