Jonathan Taylor Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Carries

Indianapolis Colts vs Washington Commanders · Week 8, 2022

Updated Oct 30, 2022 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 17.5 (-163/+118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 17.5 @ -121 before it was bet up to 17.5 @ -163.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 129.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Indianapolis Colts have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 64.7 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to total 18.4 rush attempts in this game, on average, placing him in the 93rd percentile among running backs.
The Indianapolis Colts have risked going for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in football), which generally means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive metrics across the board.

Favors Under

The Indianapolis Colts will be rolling with backup quarterback Sam Ehlinger in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
The Colts have been the 10th-least run-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) this year with a 35.8% run rate.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to be a less important option in his offense's rushing attack this week (65.9% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (82.4% in games he has played).
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line ranks as the 2nd-worst in football this year at run-game blocking.

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