Jonathan Taylor Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Jonathan Taylor

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Taylor

RB · Indianapolis Colts

Carries

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 7:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Taylor Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-116/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Indianapolis Colts have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.
The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.
The Indianapolis Colts have risked going for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 6th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (72.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (85.9% in games he has played).
The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.
The Tennessee Titans defensive ends project as the 5th-best collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to run defense.
The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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