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Jonathan Taylor

Jonathan Taylor Carries
Player Prop Week 7

Tennessee Titans vs Indianapolis Colts

Jonathan Taylor Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-116/-111).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 16.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -111.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Indianapolis Colts have called the 3rd-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 65.5 plays per game.

The Tennessee Titans have stacked the box against opponents on just 10.1% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

The Indianapolis Colts have risked going for it on 4th down 23.6% of the time since the start of last season (7th-most in the NFL), which typically means more offensive volume, more touchdown potential, and higher offensive statistics across the board.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Colts to run the 6th-least offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.0 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Jonathan Taylor to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (72.3% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (85.9% in games he has played).

The Indianapolis Colts offensive line profiles as the 2nd-worst in football this year at blocking for the run game.

The Tennessee Titans defensive ends project as the 5th-best collection of DEs in the league this year in regard to run defense.

The Indianapolis Colts have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.7% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (5th-least in the NFL). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat accumulation.

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