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Jonathan Mingo

Jonathan Mingo Receptions
Player Prop Week 12

Washington Commanders vs Dallas Cowboys

Jonathan Mingo Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-115/-115).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Dallas Cowboys may take to the air less in this game (and call more carries) given that they be forced to utilize backup quarterback Cooper Rush.

This week's line implies an extreme passing game script for the Cowboys, who are enormous -10.5-point underdogs.

The model projects the Cowboys to be the 3rd-most pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 61.8% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to have 136.4 total plays run: the 2nd-highest number out of all the games this week.

The Dallas Cowboys have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 61.3 plays per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Opposing teams teams have been hesitant to lean on the pass against the Washington Commanders, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in the league (a lowly 29.5 per game) this year.

The leading projections forecast Jonathan Mingo to be a less important option in his offense's pass attack in this week's game (3.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (9.3% in games he has played).

The Cowboys O-line profiles as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative influence on all pass attack stats across the board.

Jonathan Mingo's pass-catching performance tailed off this season, accumulating a mere 1.3 adjusted catches compared to 2.7 last season.

Jonathan Mingo's possession skills have diminished this season, with his Adjusted Completion Rate shrinking from 49.6% to 39.9%.

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