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Jonathan Mingo

Jonathan Mingo Receptions
Player Prop Week 1

New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers

Jonathan Mingo Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 1.5 (-145/+115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 1.5 @ +100 before it was bet up to 1.5 @ -145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

At a -5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs this week, indicating more of a focus on throwing than their normal approach.

The projections expect this game to see the 5th-most plays run on the slate this week at 131.3 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.

The Panthers have run the 2nd-most plays in the league last year, totaling a colossal 61.2 plays per game.

The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop-off.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Our trusted projections expect the Carolina Panthers to be the 2nd-least pass-focused team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 56.7% pass rate.

While Jonathan Mingo has been responsible for 18.7% of his team's targets in games he has played last year, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller part of Carolina's passing attack in this week's contest at 9.3%.

The Carolina O-line ranks as the 3rd-worst in the NFL last year in protecting the passer, which has a negative impact on all passing attack metrics across the board.

With a lackluster 49.6% Adjusted Completion Rate (1st percentile) last year, Jonathan Mingo has been as one of the worst possession receivers in the NFL when it comes to wideouts.

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has allowed the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (59%) vs. WRs last year (59.0%).

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