Jonathan Mingo Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Jonathan Mingo

NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Mingo

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Carolina Panthers · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 12:11 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Mingo Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 25.5 (-110/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers offensive scheme to tilt 7.2% more towards the passing game than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Panthers are underdogs in this week's contest, implying more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their typical approach.
The Carolina Panthers have run the 3rd-most plays in the league this year, totaling a colossal 62.4 plays per game.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.4 pass attempts per game versus the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Jonathan Mingo has run a route on 93.5% of his offense's passing plays this year, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among wideouts.

Favors Under

The projections expect the Panthers to run the 9th-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 64.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Panthers grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year.
Jonathan Mingo grades out as one of the worst possession receivers in the league, hauling in a measly 48.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 1st percentile among wideouts
Jonathan Mingo ranks as one of the least effective pass-catchers in the league, averaging a lowly 4.82 adjusted yards-per-target this year while checking in at the 3rd percentile among wideouts

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