Jonathan Mingo Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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NFL · Player Props

Jonathan Mingo

WR · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 10, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Jonathan Mingo Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-140/+100).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 33.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 32.5 @ +100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Carolina Panthers offensive blueprint to skew 6.5% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
This week's spread implies a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -3-point underdogs.
The 3rd-most plays in football have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.8 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
Jonathan Mingo has run a route on 93.8% of his team's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 96th percentile when it comes to wide receivers.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Carolina Panthers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects the Panthers to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
The Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
With a feeble 51.8% Adjusted Completion% (2nd percentile) this year, Jonathan Mingo ranks as one of the most unreliable receivers in the NFL when it comes to WRs.
Jonathan Mingo comes in as one of the least effective pass-catchers in the NFL, averaging a measly 4.93 adjusted yards-per-target this year while grading out in the 7th percentile when it comes to wide receivers