John Metchie III Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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John Metchie III

NFL · Player Props

John Metchie III

WR · Houston Texans

Receiving Yards

Houston Texans vs New Orleans Saints · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 15, 2023 11:21 PM UTC

Analysis

John Metchie III Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 18.5 (-135/+105).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 14.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 18.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 137.2 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 6th-most plays in the NFL have been run by the Texans this year (a whopping 62.8 per game on average).
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (read: zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may decline.

Favors Under

The Texans have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Bobby Slowik, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 2.1% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
At the present time, the 6th-least pass-oriented team in the league (57.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Texans.
With an exceptional 23.9% Route% (25th percentile) this year, John Metchie rates among the WRs with the biggest workloads in the league.
The Saints pass defense has yielded the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (58%) to wide receivers this year (58.0%).
The Saints pass defense has exhibited strong efficiency vs. wideouts this year, surrendering 6.92 adjusted yards-per-target to the position: the 7th-fewest in the league.

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