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John Bates

John Bates Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Cleveland Browns

 
 
 
John Bates Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-118/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -110.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • At a -3-point disadvantage, the Commanders are underdogs in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on throwing than their usual game plan.
  • The Commanders O-line profiles as the best in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a positive impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
  • The Cleveland Browns linebackers project as the 9th-worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • The predictive model expects the Washington Commanders to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 51.8% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
  • Right now, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Commanders.
  • John Bates has put up quite a few less air yards this year (2.0 per game) than he did last year (9.0 per game).
  • John Bates's 3.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 9.5.
  • John Bates ranks as one of the weakest tight ends in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 10.0 adjusted yards per game while checking in at the 13th percentile when it comes to TEs.

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