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John Bates

John Bates Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 20

Detroit Lions vs Washington Commanders

John Bates Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+110/-140).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -140.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Commanders, who are giant -8.5-point underdogs.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Commanders to pass on 60.3% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.

The 3rd-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Washington Commanders this year (a whopping 60.1 per game on average).

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.

Opposing offenses have averaged 35.8 pass attempts per game against the Lions defense this year: 2nd-most in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Commanders to call the 2nd-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 64.2 plays, given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.

John Bates has notched quite a few less air yards this year (3.0 per game) than he did last year (11.0 per game).

John Bates's 4.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been significantly worse this season than it was last season at 9.9.

With a bad 8.0 adjusted receiving yards per game (13th percentile) this year, John Bates stands as one of the worst tight ends in the pass game in football.

The Lions pass defense has given up the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.4%) versus TEs this year (68.4%).

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