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John Bates

John Bates Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 19

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Washington Commanders

John Bates Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+115/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -125 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -155.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely creating a passing game script.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this game is predicted by the predictive model to have just 128.9 offensive plays called: the lowest number on the slate this week.

The Washington Commanders have called the 4th-most plays in the league this year, totaling a whopping 59.8 plays per game.

The pass games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (2-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may fall-off.

Opposing offenses have averaged 38.1 pass attempts per game against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: most in the league.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Commanders to pass on 56.5% of their opportunities: the 4th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

After accruing 11.0 air yards per game last year, John Bates has seen a big downtick this year, currently boasting 4.0 per game.

John Bates's 4.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 9.9.

With a subpar 8.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (12th percentile) this year, John Bates has been among the weakest pass-game tight ends in the league.

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