John Bates Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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John Bates

NFL · Player Props

John Bates

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 3:56 AM UTC

Analysis

John Bates Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 5.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 5.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 5.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Eric Bieniemy, and the model projects their pass/run mix to lean 13.9% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Washington Commanders to pass on 64.9% of their opportunities: the 3rd-greatest clip on the slate this week.
The Patriots defense has been something of pass funnel this year, causing opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (37.9 per game) this year.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong impact it has on all passing offense metrics), the O-line of the Commanders profiles as the 10th-best in the league this year.
John Bates's receiving reliability have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% jumping from 67.0% to 81.8%.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Commanders are forecasted by the projection model to run only 63.7 plays on offense in this contest: the 8th-lowest number on the slate this week.

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