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John Bates

John Bates Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 5

Washington Commanders vs Tennessee Titans

John Bates Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 16.5 (-110/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 17.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 16.5 @ -115.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Washington Commanders have run the 6th-most plays in football this year, averaging a whopping 67.0 plays per game.

Opposing teams have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game against the Tennessee Titans defense this year: 10th-most in the NFL.

THE BLITZ projects John Bates to garner 3.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 77th percentile among tight ends.

THE BLITZ projects John Bates to be a more integral piece of his offense's air attack this week (11.5% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.8% in games he has played).

The Tennessee Titans defense has conceded the 2nd-most receiving yards per game in the NFL (84.0) to tight ends this year.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Washington Commanders offensive line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all air attack statistics across the board.

John Bates has accrued quite a few less receiving yards per game (7.0) this year than he did last year (22.0).

John Bates's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 86.8% to 61.2%.

John Bates's pass-catching efficiency has tailed off this year, compiling a measly 3.26 yards-per-target compared to a 10.49 figure last year.

The Washington Commanders have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

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