John Bates Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

John Bates

TE · Washington Commanders

Receiving TD

Dallas Cowboys vs Washington Commanders · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 5:11 PM UTC

Analysis

John Bates Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+1200/-5000).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Commanders are a 3-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Washington Commanders to be the 3rd-quickest paced defense in football (in a neutral context) at the moment, with opposing offenses averaging 26.71 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season: 4th-most in the league.
The Washington Commanders offensive line grades out as the 7th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.

Favors Under

John Bates has been been lightly used his team's passing offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of just 0.0% this year, which puts him in the 1st percentile among tight ends.
The Dallas Cowboys defense has allowed the 9th-least touchdowns through the air in football to TEs: 0.30 per game since the start of last season.
The Dallas Cowboys safeties profile as the 8th-best safety corps in the league since the start of last season in pass coverage.
The Dallas Cowboys pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.39 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 5th-fastest in the league since the start of last season.
The Washington Commanders have faced a stacked the box on just 12.2% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.