Joe Mixon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Buffalo Bills · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 63.5 @ -110 before it was bet down to 58.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

In this game, Joe Mixon is predicted by the projections to place in the 95th percentile among RBs with 16.8 carries.
After accounting for 68.6% of his offense's carries last year, Joe Mixon has been more involved in the rushing attack this year, now comprising 81.4%.
Joe Mixon has grinded out 64.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the biggest figures in the league among RBs (87th percentile).
The Buffalo Bills defense has had the 3rd-worst efficiency against opposing ground games this year, allowing 5.13 adjusted yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Cincinnati Bengals to run on 34.0% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest frequency among all teams this week.
The predictive model expects this game to see the 2nd-smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 124.0 plays, based on the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Calm weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being predicted in this game) generally mean increased passing efficiency, increased TD potential, increased air volume, and lower ground volume.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 10th-worst in the league last year in run support.
When it comes to the linebackers' role in defending against the run, Buffalo's LB corps has been terrific this year, projecting as the 3rd-best in football.

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