Joe Mixon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Seattle Seahawks · Week 6, 2023

Updated Oct 16, 2023 2:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 62.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 67.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 62.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects this game to have the 4th-highest number of plays run among all games this week at 128.8 plays, based on the play styles of each team and game dynamics.
The projections expect Joe Mixon to accumulate 18.5 rush attempts in this contest, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile when it comes to running backs.
Joe Mixon has been a much bigger part of his team's ground game this year (85.7% Carry Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (68.6%).
Joe Mixon has grinded out 65.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the NFL among RBs (87th percentile).

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bengals to run on 37.2% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate among all teams this week.
As it relates to run support (and the effect it has on all ground game stats), the offensive line of the Bengals grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year.
The Seattle Seahawks defense has produced the 2nd-best efficiency against opposing running games this year, surrendering just 3.10 adjusted yards-per-carry (YPC).
The Seahawks linebackers profile as the 2nd-best unit in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.

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