Joe Mixon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Arizona Cardinals vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 9, 2023 12:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 71.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 68.5 @ -110 before it was bet up to 71.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, indicating a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects Joe Mixon to notch 15.7 carries this week, on average, ranking him in the 89th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has grinded out 59.0 adjusted rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the league among running backs (82nd percentile).
This year, the weak Arizona Cardinals run defense has yielded a massive 132.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground to the opposing side: the 9th-most in the NFL.
Arizona defensive tackles project as the 2nd-worst DT corps in the NFL this year when it comes to defending the run.

Favors Under

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to run on 34.4% of their chances: the 2nd-lowest clip on the slate this week.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are projected by the model to call just 61.2 offensive plays in this game: the 7th-fewest among all teams this week.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 10th-fewest plays in football this year, totaling a mere 55.8 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, higher pass volume, higher TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
While Joe Mixon has earned 84.8% of his team's carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much less involved in Cincinnati's ground game this week at 74.8%.

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