Joe Mixon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 26, 2023 12:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 63.5 (-150/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 61.5 @ -119 before it was bet up to 63.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to total 16.1 carries this week, on average, putting him in the 91st percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has generated 61.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the NFL among running backs (86th percentile).
Joe Mixon has been among the best RBs in football at picking up extra running yardage, averaging a stellar 3.31 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 75th percentile.
The Los Angeles Rams linebackers grade out as the worst LB corps in the league since the start of last season when it comes to stopping the run.

Favors Under

The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the least run-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 37.0% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The projections expect this game to see the lowest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.8 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line profiles as the 6th-worst in football since the start of last season at blocking for rushers.

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