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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 17

Kansas City Chiefs vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 44.5 (-110/-110).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

With a fantastic tally of 57.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (85th percentile), Joe Mixon has been as one of the leading RBs in the NFL this year.

This year, the imposing Kansas City Chiefs run defense has allowed a measly 4.67 adjusted yards-per-carry to opposing offenses: the 25th-smallest rate in the league.

The Chiefs safeties grade out as the 29th-worst unit in football this year in regard to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to use backup QB Jake Browning in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.

The Bengals are a big 7-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.

The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 35.6% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 3rd-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.35 seconds per snap.

While Joe Mixon has accounted for 72.7% of his offense's run game usage in games he has played this year, the predictive model expects him to be a less important option in Cincinnati's running game in this week's contest at 58.3%.

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