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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 49.5 (+102/-134).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 49.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 49.5 @ -134.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.

With an excellent record of 58.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (84th percentile), Joe Mixon rates as one of the best pure runners in the NFL this year.

The Pittsburgh Steelers safeties profile as the 23rd-worst group of safeties in the NFL this year when it comes to stopping the run.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Cincinnati Bengals may pass less in this week's game (and call more carries) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Jake Browning.

Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to run on 39.2% of their chances: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects the Bengals offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.21 seconds per snap.

The predictive model expects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller piece of his offense's running game this week (55.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (73.3% in games he has played).

In regards to run support (and the importance it has on all run game stats), the O-line of the Cincinnati Bengals grades out as the 10th-worst in the NFL last year.

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