Joe Mixon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

A rushing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 138.0 plays on offense run: the most among all games this week.
In this game, Joe Mixon is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 90th percentile when it comes to running backs with 17.6 carries.
With an excellent total of 57.0 adjusted rushing yards per game (83rd percentile), Joe Mixon places among the leading running backs in the league this year.
Opposing offenses have run for the 5th-most adjusted yards in the NFL (136 per game) vs. the Indianapolis Colts defense this year.

Favors Under

The Cincinnati Bengals may throw the ball less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) because they be starting backup QB Jake Browning.
The model projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 10th-least run-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 40.4% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cincinnati Bengals this year (a measly 56.2 per game on average).
While Joe Mixon has garnered 77.1% of his team's rush attempts in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much less involved in Cincinnati's rushing attack in this game at 62.3%.
The Cincinnati O-line profiles as the 10th-worst in the league last year at run-game blocking.

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