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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 7

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 61.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 64.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 61.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to notch 18.7 carries in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 95th percentile among RBs.

Joe Mixon has averaged 59.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the biggest figures in the NFL among running backs (79th percentile).

The Atlanta Falcons defense has had the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, giving up 4.85 yards-per-carry.

The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 5th-least run-heavy team in football (in a neutral context) at the moment with a 33.9% run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.

THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller part of his offense's run game this week (71.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (83.9% in games he has played).

Joe Mixon's running effectiveness (3.38 yards per carry) has been some of the worst in the NFL this year (7th percentile among running backs).

Joe Mixon has been less successful in picking up extra running yardage this season, totaling 2.06 yards-after-contact vs a 3.09 rate last season.

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