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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 4

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 64.5 (+101/-134).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 63.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 64.5 @ +101.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 18.6 carries this week, on average, ranking in the 94th percentile among running backs.

Joe Mixon has grinded out 56.0 rushing yards per game since the start of last season, one of the biggest marks in the league among RBs (88th percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 8th-least run-oriented team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 36.2% run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller piece of his team's running game this week (73.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (87.9% in games he has played).

Joe Mixon's ground efficiency has tailed off this season, totaling a mere 2.74 yards-per-carry compared to a 4.09 rate last season.

Joe Mixon has been worse at generating extra ground yardage this season, averaging 1.90 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.09 mark last season.

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