Joe Mixon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 75.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 73.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 75.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 9th-most run-centric team on the slate this week with a 44.1% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to notch 21.3 rush attempts in this week's contest, on average, placing him in the 99th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has been a much bigger part of his team's rushing attack this season (92.0% Carry Share in games he has played) than he was last season (81.0%).

Favors Under

Joe Mixon's ground effectiveness has diminished this year, compiling a measly 2.90 yards-per-carry vs a 4.09 rate last year.
Joe Mixon has been less successful in picking up extra rushing yardage this year, notching 1.98 yards-after-contact compared to a 3.09 figure last year.
The New York Jets have stacked the box versus opponents on 22.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 3rd-most in the NFL. Bringing an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down a lowly 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in football), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.