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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 16

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals

 
 
 
Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (+117/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 59.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -155.
FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:
  • The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
  • The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
  • THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to garner 14.0 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
  • Joe Mixon has generated 63.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (85th percentile).

  • FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:
  • THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 39.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
  • THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.
  • THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this week (54.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (74.7% in games he has played).
  • Joe Mixon has been among the weakest RBs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a measly 2.64 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 19th percentile.
  • Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 106 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.

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