Joe Mixon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

New England Patriots vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 59.5 (+117/-155).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 59.5 @ -116 before it was bet down to 59.5 @ -155.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to garner 14.0 carries in this game, on average, ranking him in the 82nd percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has generated 63.0 yards per game on the ground this year, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (85th percentile).

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-least run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 39.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense to be the 8th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 29.14 seconds per snap.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller part of his offense's rushing attack this week (54.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (74.7% in games he has played).
Joe Mixon has been among the weakest RBs in the NFL at picking up extra rushing yardage, averaging a measly 2.64 yards-after-contact this year while checking in at the 19th percentile.
Opposing teams have rushed for the 5th-least yards in the league (just 106 per game) against the New England Patriots defense this year.

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