Joe Mixon Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 58.5 (-106/-124).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 59.5 @ -112 before it was bet down to 58.5 @ -124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to notch 15.0 rush attempts in this contest, on average, placing him in the 85th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon has averaged 64.0 rushing yards per game this year, one of the highest figures in the league among RBs (88th percentile).
The Cleveland Browns defense owns the 4th-worst efficiency against opposing running games this year, allowing 5.23 yards-per-carry.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 9th-least run-centric team among all teams this week with a 38.2% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to call the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a much smaller piece of his offense's rushing attack this week (62.0% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (76.9% in games he has played).
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.