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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards
Player Prop Week 1

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers

Joe Mixon Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 71.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 68.5 @ -114 before it was bet up to 71.5 @ -110.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a massive 7-point favorite in this week's game, which points towards an extreme rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 9th-most run-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 44.5% run rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to earn 19.1 carries in this contest, on average, ranking in the 98th percentile among RBs.

Joe Mixon has grinded out 57.0 yards per game on the ground since the start of last season, one of the highest marks in the NFL among RBs (89th percentile).

Opposing offenses have rushed for the 2nd-most yards in the NFL (144 per game) vs. the Pittsburgh Steelers defense since the start of last season.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-most sluggish paced team in football (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 27.80 seconds per play.

THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to be a less important option in his offense's running game this week (68.1% projected Carry Share) than he has been since the start of last season (81.0% in games he has played).

The Pittsburgh Steelers defensive ends rank as the 3rd-best DE corps in football since the start of last season with their run defense.

The Pittsburgh Steelers have stacked the box against opponents on 21.0% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-most in the NFL. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the expense of better passing efficiency.

The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a measly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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