Joe Mixon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+123/-167).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +129 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +123.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
Joe Mixon has received 80.0% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking in the 96th percentile among running backs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-least run-oriented offense in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 37.8% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers defensive tackles project as the 2nd-best DT corps in the league this year when it comes to stopping the run.
The Carolina Panthers have stacked the box versus opponents on 26.1% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This slows the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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