Joe Mixon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 7, 2022

Updated Oct 23, 2022 5:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+147/-206).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +157 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +147.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.
Joe Mixon has been given 81.0% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among RBs.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 37.5% red zone run rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles profile as the 10th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.
The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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