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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 7

Cincinnati Bengals vs Atlanta Falcons

Joe Mixon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+147/-206).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +157 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +147.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, indicating a rushing game script.

Joe Mixon has been given 81.0% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, placing him in the 96th percentile among RBs.

The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box against opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-least run-heavy offense in the NFL near the goal line (adjusted for context) right now with a 37.5% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 4th-most sluggish paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 29.60 seconds per play.

The Atlanta Falcons defensive tackles profile as the 10th-best group of DTs in the NFL this year in regard to run defense.

The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

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