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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+146/-202).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

Joe Mixon has been given 85.0% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 96th percentile among running backs.

The New Orleans Saints have stacked the box against opponents on just 13.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 9th-least in football. Choosing not to bring an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-least run-heavy team in the league near the end zone (context-neutralized) right now with a 38.8% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.

The Cincinnati Bengals O-line ranks as the 6th-worst in the league this year at blocking for the run game.

The New Orleans Saints linebackers grade out as the 4th-best group of LBs in the league this year when it comes to run defense.

The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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