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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 4

Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami Dolphins

Joe Mixon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (-113/-118).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ -113.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a 4-point favorite this week, indicating a rushing game script.

Joe Mixon has garnered 78.3% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking in the 96th percentile among running backs.

Joe Mixon has run for 0.54 touchdowns per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the largest marks in the NFL among running backs (93rd percentile).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 6th-least run-centric offense in football near the end zone (in a neutral context) right now with a 39.1% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 120.9 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The Miami Dolphins defensive ends rank as the 4th-best group of DEs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to defending the run.

The Miami Dolphins have stacked the box versus opponents on 21.4% of their plays since the start of last season, 5th-most in football. Bringing an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

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