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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 2

Dallas Cowboys vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+120/-160).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a huge 7.5-point favorite in this game, indicating an extreme rushing game script.

Joe Mixon has been given 82.7% of his team's red zone rush attempts since the start of last season, ranking him in the 99th percentile among RBs.

Joe Mixon has rushed for 0.59 TDs per game on the ground since the start of last season (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among running backs (94th percentile).

The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 5th-worst group of LBs in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 4th-least run-centric team in the league near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 39.4% red zone run rate.

THE BLITZ projects this game to play at the 11th-slowest pace on the slate this week, averaging 27.26 seconds per play given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

Opposing teams have rushed for the 6th-least TDs in football (0.72 per game) versus the Dallas Cowboys defense since the start of last season.

The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This slows the pace, leading to less volume and stat-padding.

The Cincinnati Bengals have gone for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the league), which typically means less offensive volume, less TD potential, and lower offensive statistics across the board.

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