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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Rushing TD
Player Prop Week 15

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+203/-306).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -240 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -306.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to run the 3rd-most offensive plays among all teams this week with 68.2 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.

Joe Mixon has received 65.9% of his team's red zone rush attempts this year, putting him in the 94th percentile among RBs.

Joe Mixon has rushed for 0.55 touchdowns per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the highest figures in football among RBs (87th percentile).

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers defensive ends rank as the 4th-worst DE corps in the league this year in regard to run defense.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 10th-least run-oriented offense in the NFL near the goal line (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 40.2% red zone run rate.

The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a mere 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in football). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.

The Cincinnati Bengals have elected to go for it on 4th down just 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which usually means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.

The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized some form of misdirection on a lowly 38.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-least in football), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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