Joe Mixon Rushing TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Rushing TD

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 12, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Rushing TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+125/-155).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Bengals are a 4.5-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 8th-most plays in football this year, totaling a whopping 60.0 plays per game.
Joe Mixon has garnered 66.7% of his offense's red zone rush attempts this year, ranking him in the 94th percentile among running backs.
Joe Mixon has run for 0.60 TDs per game on the ground this year (on average), one of the biggest marks in football among RBs (91st percentile).
Opposing teams have run for the 2nd-most touchdowns in the league (1.25 per game) versus the Cleveland Browns defense this year.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Bengals to call the 9th-least plays on offense among all teams this week with 63.7 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on just 2.3% of their play-calls outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the league). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.
The Cincinnati Bengals have risked going for it on 4th down a mere 15.7% of the time since the start of last season (7th-least in the NFL), which typically means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized some form of misdirection on a measly 38.8% of their play-calls since the start of last season (6th-least in the NFL), which likely makes the offense more predictable and less effective.

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