Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Tennessee Titans vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 4, 2023

Updated Oct 1, 2023 7:36 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+102/-139).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +129 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +102.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 65.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced rush volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Opposing offenses have averaged 39.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: most in the NFL.
The model projects Joe Mixon to accrue 4.7 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has been among the leading RB receiving threats since the start of last season, averaging a stellar 4.0 receptions per game while checking in at the 98th percentile.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 119.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Joe Mixon's 12.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 21.4.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line ranks as the 6th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the QB, which has a harmful impact on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Joe Mixon's ball-catching skills have declined this year, with his Completion% decreasing from 86.0% to 68.5%.

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