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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receptions
Player Prop Week 18

Cincinnati Bengals vs Cleveland Browns

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-150/+118).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Bengals may pass less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be forced to use backup QB Jake Browning.

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 2nd-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (in a neutral context) at the present time with a 66.8% pass rate.

The model projects the Bengals to run the 10th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 65.7 plays, based on their underlying play style and game dynamics.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

With a 5.5-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this game, implying more of a reliance on rushing than their typical approach.

Windy weather conditions (like the 12-mph being projected in this game) usually mean decreased passing effectiveness, lower air attack volume, and increased ground volume.

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.1 pass attempts per game vs. the Browns defense this year: 6th-fewest in the NFL.

Joe Mixon's 14.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive usage) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 21.4.

Joe Mixon's 3.2 adjusted receptions per game this season marks a significant drop-off in his pass-catching prowess over last season's 4.3 mark.

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