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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receptions
Player Prop Week 16

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-185/+155).

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cincinnati Bengals may pass less in this week's game (and call more carries) given that they be rolling with backup quarterback Jake Browning.

The predictive model expects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 6th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.8% pass rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.

Our trusted projections expect Joe Mixon to garner 3.9 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 75th percentile among running backs.

Joe Mixon checks in as one of the most reliable receivers in the NFL among RBs, catching a stellar 85.8% of balls thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 76th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.

The predictive model expects the Bengals offense to be the 4th-slowest paced team in football (in a neutral context) right now, averaging 29.21 seconds per snap.

Opposing quarterbacks teams have been unwilling to lean on the pass against the Steelers, totaling the 9th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.1 per game) this year.

Joe Mixon's 13.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 21.4.

Joe Mixon's receiving performance has diminished this season, accumulating a measly 3.2 adjusted receptions compared to 4.3 last season.

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