Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Minnesota Vikings · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-151/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +123 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -151.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 60.6% of their plays: the 9th-highest frequency on the slate this week.
Accounting for their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are forecasted by the predictive model to call 67.2 plays on offense in this game: the 3rd-highest number on the slate this week.
Opposing offenses have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
This week, Joe Mixon is predicted by the projection model to land in the 93rd percentile when it comes to running backs with 5.1 targets.
The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has yielded the highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (93.6%) to running backs this year (93.6%).

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Bengals are favored in this game, indicating more of a focus on rushing than their normal approach.
The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Bengals this year (a measly 55.9 per game on average).
Joe Mixon's 14.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that weighs high-value offensive volume) has been notably lower this year than it was last year at 21.4.
The Cincinnati O-line ranks as the 7th-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative influence on all passing attack stats across the board.
Joe Mixon's play as a receiver has worsened this season, accumulating a mere 3.2 adjusted catches vs 4.3 last season.

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