Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 10, 2023 8:21 PM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+100/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals may throw the ball less in this week's game (and hand the ball off more) because they be starting backup QB Jake Browning.
At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-centric team in the league (66.9% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is anticipated by our trusted projection set to have 138.0 plays on offense run: the most among all games this week.
Our trusted projections expect Joe Mixon to accumulate 4.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 91st percentile when it comes to RBs.
Joe Mixon is positioned as one of the best possession receivers in football among running backs, catching a terrific 86.3% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, ranking in the 75th percentile.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is indicated by the Bengals being a 3-point favorite in this week's contest.
The 10th-smallest volume of plays in football have been run by the Cincinnati Bengals this year (a measly 56.2 per game on average).
Opposing teams teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 8th-fewest attempts in the league (a measly 34.0 per game) this year.
Joe Mixon's 13.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 21.4.
In regards to pass protection (and the effect it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Cincinnati Bengals grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year.