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Joe Mixon

Joe Mixon Receptions
Player Prop Week 13

Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati Bengals

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-195/+145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +150 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +145.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

The Cincinnati Bengals may take to the air less in this contest (and call more carries) given that they be starting backup QB Jake Browning.

This week's spread suggests an extreme passing game script for the Bengals, who are giant -10.5-point underdogs.

Based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Cincinnati Bengals to pass on 65.6% of their opportunities: the 3rd-highest rate on the slate this week.

The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing offenses to attempt the 5th-most passes in the league (38.5 per game) this year.

This year, the deficient Jacksonville Jaguars pass defense has been gouged for a monstrous 83.3% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing RBs: the highest rate in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics, the Cincinnati Bengals are predicted by the projections to run just 61.5 plays on offense in this game: the fewest on the slate this week.

The Cincinnati Bengals have run the fewest plays in football this year, averaging a lowly 55.3 plays per game.

Joe Mixon's 12.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit lower this season than it was last season at 21.4.

The Cincinnati O-line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense metrics across the board.

Joe Mixon's 3.0 adjusted receptions per game this year marks a noteworthy diminishment in his receiving proficiency over last year's 4.3 mark.

More Joe Mixon Player Props

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