Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 3:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -140.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cincinnati Bengals will be forced to start backup quarterback Jake Browning in this game, which usually means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
At the present time, the 3rd-most pass-centric offense in football (67.1% context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
The leading projections forecast Joe Mixon to total 4.0 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 85th percentile when it comes to RBs.

Favors Under

At the moment, the 3rd-most sluggish paced offense in the league (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Bengals.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point regression in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that quantifies high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Joe Mixon has been incorporated much less in his offense's pass attack.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all passing game statistics), the O-line of the Cincinnati Bengals ranks as the 7th-worst in football this year.
Joe Mixon's receiving skills have declined this season, totaling just 3.1 adjusted receptions vs 4.3 last season.
The Steelers pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (68.4%) versus RBs this year (68.4%).

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