Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Baltimore Ravens vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 17, 2023 1:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -145 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game's spread suggests a passing game script for the Bengals, who are -3.5-point underdogs.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Bengals to pass on 68.6% of their plays: the highest clip among all teams this week.
Opposing teams have averaged 39.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 7th-most in football.
In this week's game, Joe Mixon is anticipated by the projections to position himself in the 88th percentile among running backs with 4.0 targets.
This year, the porous Ravens pass defense has allowed a whopping 85.1% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 7th-biggest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

At the present time, the 6th-slowest paced offense in football (context-neutralized) according to our trusted projection set is the Cincinnati Bengals.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) from last season to this one, Joe Mixon has been used much less in his offense's passing game.
As it relates to pocket protection (and the significance it has on all pass game metrics), the offensive line of the Bengals ranks as the 9th-worst in the NFL this year.
Joe Mixon's 2.9 adjusted receptions per game this year shows a remarkable reduction in his receiving proficiency over last year's 4.3 figure.
As it relates to safeties in covering pass-catchers, Baltimore's safety corps has been fantastic this year, ranking as the best in the league.

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