Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Houston Texans · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-113/-113).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Bengals to pass on 64.3% of their chances: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.
The passing attacks of both teams (including both volume and effectiveness) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while ground volume may slide.
In this week's contest, Joe Mixon is expected by the predictive model to place in the 85th percentile among running backs with 4.2 targets.
The Texans pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (87.2%) to running backs this year (87.2%).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 5.5-point favorite in this game, likely leading to a rushing game script.
At the present time, the 6th-slowest paced team in football (context-neutralized) according to the predictive model is the Bengals.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decrease in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) from last season to this one, Joe Mixon has been utilized much less in his team's passing game.
Joe Mixon's 3.0 adjusted receptions per game this season indicates a substantial drop-off in his pass-catching skills over last season's 4.3 mark.
When it comes to safeties in pass coverage, Houston's unit has been exceptional this year, grading out as the 10th-best in the league.

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