Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-105/-135).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -135.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to accrue 5.2 targets in this contest, on average, putting him in the 95th percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon has been much more involved in his team's passing attack this year (14.5% Target Share in games he has been on the field) than he was last year (9.5%).

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Joe Mixon's ball-catching skills have worsened this season, with his Completion% shrinking from 89.2% to 83.1%.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the league since the start of last season.

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