Joe Mixon Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Joe Mixon

NFL · Player Props

Joe Mixon

RB · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 8, 2022

Updated Nov 1, 2022 12:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Joe Mixon Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+115/-145).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -140 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -145.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals to be the 5th-most pass-oriented offense in football (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 67.3% pass rate.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 4th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a whopping 64.6 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Joe Mixon to notch 4.6 targets this week, on average, ranking him in the 92nd percentile among RBs.
Joe Mixon's 19.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially better this year than it was last year at 14.0.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 126.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 30.4 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: least in the league.
Joe Mixon's sure-handedness have tailed off this year, with his Completion% falling off from 89.2% to 82.1%.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has afforded their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all air attack metrics across the board.

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